For the first time in over a decade, townhouse sales have taken the lead in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) multi-family market, overtaking a stalled market for condominium apartments. Developers of new condominium apartment sites have completely pulled back,” says Pauline Lierman, Zonda Urban’s vice president of market research. “There is no incentive to launch into a market where the demand isn’t there, and unsold inventory is at a record high of 22,388 units. Demand for townhouses cannot compensate for the gap left by an absent new condominium apartment market in the GTHA. Still, it can provide a ‘Plan B’ for diversified firms and help on the supply front.”

Zonda Urban’s Q3-2024 GTHA multi-family survey results show quarterly townhouse sales accounted for the area’s highest share of multi-family sales. Of the 1,064 condominium apartments and townhouses sold in the quarter, 56% were ground-related townhouses—meanwhile, only 465 new condominium apartments sold in the quarter, a two-decade low for the market. Zonda Urban anticipates fewer than 10 apartment projects to launch during the fall. In a more robust market, as recently as 2020 and 2021, around 30 projects would open for sales. Townhouse developers are showing a brighter outlook—launches and new releases are ongoing and expected to continue through the fall.

Total multi-family sales over the past 12 months have declined 43% with new condominium apartment sales down by 50% to 6,476 and a marginal 14% decline in townhouse sales to 2,681 units.

Two new condominium apartment projects were launched during the third quarter, and the market struggled to attract buyers to sustain absorptions. Only 15% of 748 new units sold at an average of $1,104 psf and a notably small average size of 547 sf ($625,945 average price). In contrast, townhouse launches were steadier during the usually slow summer months, with ten projects launching and selling 50% of 442 units released at an average of $1.276 million ($611 psf) with an average unit size of 1,993 sf. Over the next 15 months, the development industry will continue to deliver many new condominium apartments with an additional 13,048 units in buildings expected to begin occupancy by the end of 2024, bringing annual condominium apartment completions to 29,414.

A further 34,000 units are slated for completion in 2025. The long-term outlook after 2025 foresees a potential supply freefall, with units estimated to be delivered in 2027 falling 50% compared to 2025 and only 2,838 units estimated to be delivered in 2029. These delivery estimates are contingent on a return of sales; of the current 22,388 unsold new condominium apartment units in the GTHA in Q3-2024, 62% were in pre-construction, with work on these sites not yet having commenced.

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Zonda provides data-driven housing market solutions to the homebuilding industry. From builders to building product manufacturers, mortgage clients, and multifamily executives, we work hand-in-hand with our customers to streamline access to housing data to empower smarter decisions. As a leading brand in residential construction, our mission is to advance the home building industry, because we believe better homes mean better lives and stronger communities. Together, we are building the future of housing.